Top Chinese markets show more unified comeback
 
Top Chinese markets show more unified comeback
10 JUNE 2020 7:56 AM

While Shenzhen was the early success story among China’s top four markets, Shanghai is now the performance leader with Guangzhou not far behind.

SINGAPORE—While Shenzhen was the major Chinese market to show the quickest rebound, its performance has now been surpassed by Shanghai and matched by Guangzhou, according to analysis of performance data in the country.

In his weekly video highlighting performance trends in the region, Jesper Palmqvist, area director of Asia/Pacific for STR, said latest data shows Shenzhen is no longer the clear leader in terms of demand recovery. STR is the parent company of Hotel News Now.

“What happened in May was Shanghai was not only able to catch up but stay clear and take the lead, with the overall field more collected again and less spread out,” he said.

In terms of leisure markets, Palmqvist said they saw April occupancy numbers roughly “half way back to normality.” Early returns from May, based on daily data as monthly data still needs to be compiled, showed some days late in the month—29 May, in particular—enjoyed occupancies close to those seen in 2019.

“Now, that doesn’t mean … that every day will be like that moving forward, but we’re not used to seeing year-over-year flat in any metrics, so that is, in the words of Larry David, pretty, pretty good,” he said.

He noted that it’s only up from this point and “it will be interesting to see if rates can find that pace, too.”

He said there is some question whether Chinese occupancy plateaued in May, hovering around 50%.

“Sure, it’s only three weeks, but once a growth curve like that stops, it is potentially a hold and another step in the ladder,” he said. “Based on current information, I think it’s fair to estimate some additional growth, but at a slower pace until August.”

Beijing forecast
He said STR and Tourism Economics’ latest projections have Beijing occupancy returning to 2019 levels by 2022, with a full rebound expected by 2023.

Palmqvist said that projection is based on a “combination of many factors that exist in the crisis, including economic recovery, supply growth, the Olympics and much more.”

He noted revenue per available room won’t rebound until 2024, mostly due to slow-to-grow average daily rates.

Editor’s note: The video included in this article was filmed by STR’s Jesper Palmqvist, on 4 June and edited and produced by CoStar Group. HNN is a division of STR, a CoStar Group company.

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